Stories of the famous and not-so-famous men and women from the days when baseball was "Arkansas' Game." Always free and always short enough to finish in one cup of coffee.
I suspect Ohtani will end up mostly a DH. In that role his hitting numbers may very well be even better than the last three years. But I don’t think he will win 100 games pitching. I do think he will hit around 500 home runs and get in the hall of fame.
I agree Mauer and Helton get in the HOF. I don’t think the others will this year.
Mark, I tend to agree with you, but I posted extreme success as well as scenarios that are closer to reality. I hope he has some continued success. He is good for baseball. I like Mauer's chances also.
You averaged Ohtani’s last three years. Age 27,28, 29. These are a players peak period for physical ability. We all know ability declines before performance. Especially in world class athletes. So you are giving him his peak performance capability until the age of 40. Well, I know you did that tongue in cheek. Cause you study cyber metrics. All players show a significant decrease in performance by age 33. The top ten home run hitters after age 30, the best there have been, will get 441 hrs after age 30. Stargell after age 33 averaged, I believe, less than 25 a year. Jim Thome drastically declined at age 33. Palmeiro, Bonds, McGuire and Sosa are on the list and they don’t count. Realistically IMO you can expect around 300 to 330. For a total of 501. Hall of Fame for a non position player?? Probably. Pitching? He’s not throwing next year and after that he might win another 40-50 games. He won’t win 100 games. Is there anything he will be the very best at? Not as a DH, not as a HR hitter, certainly not for average and as a pitcher he won’t scratch the surface. With 500 HR’s and 90 wins as a pitcher do you vote him in first ballot. Nope I don’t.
I agree with everything you shared. I did post one scenario of 10 years of success similar to his last three years, but realistically that seems highly unlikely. I also agree that he is a long shot to pass Babe Ruth in pitching wins. (94) Don't you think the Dodgers would be thrilled if he approached his current production for five years or so, especially if there is a World Series title(s) in those years?
Absolutely they would be thrilled. But that much money for a DH for five great years. I think there will be position players each year who will exceed his numbers for far far less money. No question his skills will diminish at 33. It has happened to everyone. He will be out of baseball by age 40. Some of the greatest hung around till 41-42 but it was because of name certainly not production.
Jim, it will be interesting to follow Ohtani. Projections and predictions can be difficult to live up to and hard to overcome. I'm not the numbers guy - Mike was - but I put Ohtani will be in the same room as Babe Ruth. He is an incredible player with outstanding talent, not just good enough to make the major leagues. I'm an optimist (that's my measuring tool) and hope and feel he will exceed the analytical predictions. Catch me in 10 years and we will look at Ohtani math!
I think Ohtani is good for baseball, don't you? He may have an advantage by claiming that his language barrier doesn't allow him to hear all the "noise." That allows him to focus on the game rather than on expectations and criticisms. Hope you are warm and well.
I agree, he is good for baseball. His mindset seems to be different in that his focus is on his own game of baseball, how he wants to play the game. The pressure must be enormous but he's handling it well. Like in golf, much of the game is in "your head" and he seems to be able to manage the outside world better than most. And I'm doing well, looking at the snow and loving it, but waiting for pitchers and catchers to report!
I suspect Ohtani will end up mostly a DH. In that role his hitting numbers may very well be even better than the last three years. But I don’t think he will win 100 games pitching. I do think he will hit around 500 home runs and get in the hall of fame.
I agree Mauer and Helton get in the HOF. I don’t think the others will this year.
Mark, I tend to agree with you, but I posted extreme success as well as scenarios that are closer to reality. I hope he has some continued success. He is good for baseball. I like Mauer's chances also.
Joe Mauer. Only one to get in.
You averaged Ohtani’s last three years. Age 27,28, 29. These are a players peak period for physical ability. We all know ability declines before performance. Especially in world class athletes. So you are giving him his peak performance capability until the age of 40. Well, I know you did that tongue in cheek. Cause you study cyber metrics. All players show a significant decrease in performance by age 33. The top ten home run hitters after age 30, the best there have been, will get 441 hrs after age 30. Stargell after age 33 averaged, I believe, less than 25 a year. Jim Thome drastically declined at age 33. Palmeiro, Bonds, McGuire and Sosa are on the list and they don’t count. Realistically IMO you can expect around 300 to 330. For a total of 501. Hall of Fame for a non position player?? Probably. Pitching? He’s not throwing next year and after that he might win another 40-50 games. He won’t win 100 games. Is there anything he will be the very best at? Not as a DH, not as a HR hitter, certainly not for average and as a pitcher he won’t scratch the surface. With 500 HR’s and 90 wins as a pitcher do you vote him in first ballot. Nope I don’t.
I agree with everything you shared. I did post one scenario of 10 years of success similar to his last three years, but realistically that seems highly unlikely. I also agree that he is a long shot to pass Babe Ruth in pitching wins. (94) Don't you think the Dodgers would be thrilled if he approached his current production for five years or so, especially if there is a World Series title(s) in those years?
Absolutely they would be thrilled. But that much money for a DH for five great years. I think there will be position players each year who will exceed his numbers for far far less money. No question his skills will diminish at 33. It has happened to everyone. He will be out of baseball by age 40. Some of the greatest hung around till 41-42 but it was because of name certainly not production.
Jim, it will be interesting to follow Ohtani. Projections and predictions can be difficult to live up to and hard to overcome. I'm not the numbers guy - Mike was - but I put Ohtani will be in the same room as Babe Ruth. He is an incredible player with outstanding talent, not just good enough to make the major leagues. I'm an optimist (that's my measuring tool) and hope and feel he will exceed the analytical predictions. Catch me in 10 years and we will look at Ohtani math!
Susan,
I think Ohtani is good for baseball, don't you? He may have an advantage by claiming that his language barrier doesn't allow him to hear all the "noise." That allows him to focus on the game rather than on expectations and criticisms. Hope you are warm and well.
I agree, he is good for baseball. His mindset seems to be different in that his focus is on his own game of baseball, how he wants to play the game. The pressure must be enormous but he's handling it well. Like in golf, much of the game is in "your head" and he seems to be able to manage the outside world better than most. And I'm doing well, looking at the snow and loving it, but waiting for pitchers and catchers to report!
Susan hope you are doing well.
Harold Cornett