Stories of the famous and not-so-famous men and women from the days when baseball was "Arkansas' Game." Always free and always short enough to finish in one cup of coffee.
I suspect Ohtani will end up mostly a DH. In that role his hitting numbers may very well be even better than the last three years. But I don’t think he will win 100 games pitching. I do think he will hit around 500 home runs and get in the hall of fame.
I agree Mauer and Helton get in the HOF. I don’t think the others will this year.
You averaged Ohtani’s last three years. Age 27,28, 29. These are a players peak period for physical ability. We all know ability declines before performance. Especially in world class athletes. So you are giving him his peak performance capability until the age of 40. Well, I know you did that tongue in cheek. Cause you study cyber metrics. All players show a significant decrease in performance by age 33. The top ten home run hitters after age 30, the best there have been, will get 441 hrs after age 30. Stargell after age 33 averaged, I believe, less than 25 a year. Jim Thome drastically declined at age 33. Palmeiro, Bonds, McGuire and Sosa are on the list and they don’t count. Realistically IMO you can expect around 300 to 330. For a total of 501. Hall of Fame for a non position player?? Probably. Pitching? He’s not throwing next year and after that he might win another 40-50 games. He won’t win 100 games. Is there anything he will be the very best at? Not as a DH, not as a HR hitter, certainly not for average and as a pitcher he won’t scratch the surface. With 500 HR’s and 90 wins as a pitcher do you vote him in first ballot. Nope I don’t.
Jim, it will be interesting to follow Ohtani. Projections and predictions can be difficult to live up to and hard to overcome. I'm not the numbers guy - Mike was - but I put Ohtani will be in the same room as Babe Ruth. He is an incredible player with outstanding talent, not just good enough to make the major leagues. I'm an optimist (that's my measuring tool) and hope and feel he will exceed the analytical predictions. Catch me in 10 years and we will look at Ohtani math!
I suspect Ohtani will end up mostly a DH. In that role his hitting numbers may very well be even better than the last three years. But I don’t think he will win 100 games pitching. I do think he will hit around 500 home runs and get in the hall of fame.
I agree Mauer and Helton get in the HOF. I don’t think the others will this year.
Joe Mauer. Only one to get in.
You averaged Ohtani’s last three years. Age 27,28, 29. These are a players peak period for physical ability. We all know ability declines before performance. Especially in world class athletes. So you are giving him his peak performance capability until the age of 40. Well, I know you did that tongue in cheek. Cause you study cyber metrics. All players show a significant decrease in performance by age 33. The top ten home run hitters after age 30, the best there have been, will get 441 hrs after age 30. Stargell after age 33 averaged, I believe, less than 25 a year. Jim Thome drastically declined at age 33. Palmeiro, Bonds, McGuire and Sosa are on the list and they don’t count. Realistically IMO you can expect around 300 to 330. For a total of 501. Hall of Fame for a non position player?? Probably. Pitching? He’s not throwing next year and after that he might win another 40-50 games. He won’t win 100 games. Is there anything he will be the very best at? Not as a DH, not as a HR hitter, certainly not for average and as a pitcher he won’t scratch the surface. With 500 HR’s and 90 wins as a pitcher do you vote him in first ballot. Nope I don’t.
Jim, it will be interesting to follow Ohtani. Projections and predictions can be difficult to live up to and hard to overcome. I'm not the numbers guy - Mike was - but I put Ohtani will be in the same room as Babe Ruth. He is an incredible player with outstanding talent, not just good enough to make the major leagues. I'm an optimist (that's my measuring tool) and hope and feel he will exceed the analytical predictions. Catch me in 10 years and we will look at Ohtani math!