Backroads and Ballplayers #37

Stories of the famous and not-so-famous men and women from the days when baseball was "Arkansas' Game." Always free and always short enough to finish in one cup of coffee.

Clearing my Desk: Ohtani Math, Hall of Fame 2024, Hot Springs Baseball Weekend, and Chairman of the Board Style Leadership

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The Ghosts of those who have gone before.” Ohtani math AGAIN!

“[Baseball] is a haunted game, where each player is measured by the ghosts of those who have gone before.” —Ken Burns (narrated by John Chancellor in the documentary Baseball.)

I share those words often. I have used them in both my books and in this space many times. I obviously like the quote, but I am not sure that today’s players are exactly “haunted” by previous generations of measurement.

The game has changed. Many records that were measured against cumulative totals are now relative to today’s trends. When National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell posts his next complete game it will bring his career complete game total to one! Kyle Schwarber struck out 215 times in 2023. Tris Speaker averaged 23 strikeouts every 162 games.

Of course, I am going to use the available analytics and the newly acquired Los Angeles Dodger’s designated hitter to compare today’s leaders/award winners to those “who have gone before.” Is baseball greatness and recognition relative to the players of their time or, as Burns suggests, are the accomplishments of today’s stars judged by the ghosts of those who have gone before?

Shohei Ohtani, Babe Ruth, and David Ortiz

Let’s start this fun with the question, who is Shohei Ohtani? Your guess is as good, probably better, than mine. I am hindered by being a nostalgic senior. Is he the pitcher/DH combination he was for most of the last three years? Is he Babe Ruth, a used-to-be pitcher whose days as a once-a-week pitcher are behind him? Is he Big Papi, basically a DH for the rest of his career?

Baseball projections are dangerous (Ken Griffey Jr.), but great fun when it is snowing outside. Assuming Ohtani is a bargain at 70 million a year and for the life of his contract he produces at the same pace as the last three seasons. To make this fantasy happen, I projected his last three seasons for ten more years. Doubtful, but no more amazing than everything he has done so far. After all, he will be pitching for the best team money can buy.

Let’s do some projecting! At the end of the 2033 season, the Future Hall of Fame Ohtani is 39 years old. Based on the last three seasons, he has hit 534 home runs, in a neighborhood occupied by Mickey Mantle and Jimmie Foxx. David Ortiz hit 541. Good company…

The optimistic projection puts him just short of 2,000 hits, somewhere behind Todd Zeile, Frank White, and Tony Taylor, but in the company of Fred Lynn and Bill Dickey. Ortiz has about 500 more career hits. The Ohtani of 2033 will have about 1300 RBIs. In the current all-time list, his RBI total would be just above Mark Teixeria at 120th all-time. Ortiz had 1768 RBIs in his 20-year career.

BUT

What if, after resting his arm in 2024, Ohtani comes back to pitch with the same success he has had over the last three seasons? His place in history changes dramatically.

Currently, as a starting pitcher, Ohtani ranks 832nd in career WAR, just behind Dontelle Willis, but 51st among active starting pitchers. Over the last three years, he has averaged about 24 starts a year, posted approximately 11 wins per year, and his ERA over that period is 2.84. Playing every day and starting 24 games for the life of his contract would give the Dodgers the most significant bargain since Babe Ruth.

If we optimistically assume that after a no-pitching year, he returns as the same pitcher who was so effective the last three seasons. When he reaches the end of his Dodgers contract, he will have won 99 games as a Dodger. That win total would give him 137 career wins, 63 fewer than Adam Wainwright, 43 more than Babe Ruth.

Ranking Ohtani as a position player/DH exclusively or a starting pitcher is eminently unfair. Over the last three seasons, he has caught the imagination of casual fans and baseball’s most respected pundits. The question for today is not what he has become, the question is where is he going.

What do you think?

1. Over the next ten years, he will become the most successful pitcher-DH in baseball history, hit 500 plus home runs, and win 100 games on the mound. He will take his place in baseball history with the Great Bambino, and the Say Hey Kid among baseball’s all-time greats.

2. He will be mostly a DH. Starting 20-plus games on the mound will be far beyond expectations. His career pitching victories will fall below Ruth’s 94, and his hitting marks will be far short of Big Papi.

3. His best years are behind him. The minor injuries of the past three years will continue and become exacerbated by age. As was the case with Ken Griffey Jr., projections based on his best years are far too optimistic.

I would love to get your take.

Hall of Fame Vote 2024

On Jan. 23, the BBWAA will announce the results of its 2024 Hall of Fame vote. Those selected will be officially inducted on Hall of Fame Weekend on Sunday, July 21. Here is the ballot. Who do you think the BBWAA will choose?

I am going to go with Joe Mauer, Adrián Beltré, and Todd Helton.

Hot Springs Baseball Weekend 2024

Among the guests at the 2024 Hot Springs Baseball Weekend: Johnny Bench, Robin Yount

Hot Springs Baseball Weekend will be held at the Hot Springs Convention Center on August 23 and 24. This year’s guests are Hall of Famers Johnny Bench, Robin Yount, and Ted Simmons. Also scheduled to attend are former Razorback star Tom Pagnozzi, Dodger’s great Steve Garvey, and returning favorite Al Hrabosky. More later.

Chairman of the Board - The Arkansan Behind the “Head Coach” Style

Dusty Baker left, Nick Saban center, and the 1956 New York Giants Football Staff that includes: Head Coach Jim Lee Howell lower right, Tom Landry upper right, Vince Lombardi lower left

How many times have we seen this TV moment? The camera goes to the Astro’s Dugout for a closeup of Future Hall of Fame manager Dusty Baker. “Let’s see if Dusty sends the runner here, he needs to get something started.” Dusty seems motionless except for some seemingly impossible toothpick acrobatics. He often does the seemingly impossible backward “toothpick roll,” a move that sends the wooden baton on a 360-degree flip through his mouth. Amazing?

The runner on first is off as the batter singles through the shuffling infielders. “Good move Dusty!” “That’s why he is headed to the Hall of Fame.” Someone somewhere called the hit and run. If it was Dusty, he did it by some secret code. More likely the coach responsible for such strategy made the call.

Perhaps this “chairman of the board” leadership style came from football where offensive and defensive coordinators make even the most critical game decisions. “Let’s see what Nick Saban has dialed up for this fourth down play.” Saban paces the sideline with a serious (pained) look but never seems to speak into his headphones. Bama’s five-star running back picks up the needed yards running behind the All-America guard, “brilliant call by Saban!”

It seems this head coach/manager style of leadership was the innovation of an overly modest soft-spoken Razorback basketball and football star named James Lee Howell. Howell coached the New York Giants from 1954 to 1960. His Giants played in three NFL championship games and won the NFL championship in 1956. Howell turned the offense and defense over to two promising young assistants, claiming his most important job was to keep the balls inflated.

A quiet introspective Texan named Tom Landry coached the offense, and a firey workaholic named Vince Lombardi handled the defense. After the Giants won the title in 1956, several other teams adopted the “coordinator” system, a decision-making strategy that seems to have made its way to baseball.

Jim Lee Howell was inducted into the Arkansas Sports Hall of Fame in 1959, the University of Arkansas Sports Hall of Honor in 1990, and the New York Giants’ Ring of Honor in 2010. Howell died on January 4, 1995, in Lonoke, Arkansas.

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